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Demodernization, the ultimate threat

The barbarians are not at the gate. They are running the government.

Catastrophist alarm is a rather useless note to strike. Obviously there are dozens of alarming facts, any one of which might give us pause, a pursing of our lips, a shudder of anticipation, a benumbed nod of resignation, and on we trudge to the next banal moment of our so-called “real” lives. We’re sleepwalking, and it’s hard to do anything else. My peculiar reading choices keep pushing me outside the complacent normalcy that cocoons us these days. So I don’t want to claim the sky is falling (well, isn’t it? why not claim it?) but I think we’d all be a lot better off with a dose of realism about this odd moment in history we’re living in.

The Katrina/New Orleans story haunts all urban life now. In San Francisco this is compounded by the plain knowledge that the next Big One could strike in the next 10 minutes, or in 150 years. I’m reading Philip Fradkin’s compelling account of the 1906 earthquake and fires (The Great Earthquake and Firestorms of 1906, UC Press: 2005). Fradkin’s account clearly documents the way the local bourgeoisie used the disaster to seize direct control over the city and its reconstruction. Reading this book, realizing it was written well before Katrina wiped out New Orleans, it’s an eerily accurate century-old premonition of what seems to be happening now. In 1906 the state and federal government rushed aid to the scene, unlike today. San Francisco was not abandoned and left to its own efforts like the criminal neglect and degradation imposed on the people of New Orleans. But the uses of disaster by the powerful and monied interests behind the scenes is like a step-by-step description of what has happened again in New Orleans.

As if we needed it, here’s another dramatic demonstration of how important it is to understand history. Urban disasters actually seem to produce very predictable behaviors and results. Perhaps if people knew better the history of past disasters they’d be more prepared for the next ones. We can look back 100 years and see collusion between private, wealthy citizens and the local military and police. We can see how reconstruction priorities and funds get completely shaped by the people who were already beneficiaries of this society’s inequitable structures. More recently, we should study the history of what FEMA always does, so fantasies of being “taken care of” by the federal government will be disabused, or better, interpreted as the mafioso-like threat they are. And who can be surprised by the uses the kleptocratic war criminals running the US government are making of the disaster in New Orleans?

Continue reading Demodernization, the ultimate threat

Planning Unintended Consequences

A strange title that just popped into my head. Thanks again to all my friends who are giving me so much love and support during this awful time. Last night I stepped out to visit a friend and found this on the sidewalk in front of my apartment.

It speaks for itself. We both thank the anonymous artist.

As for the title, well, I was reading the Dec. 12 New Yorker, the Financial Page by James Surowiecki, which I don’t generally think much of, but he made an interesting observation that misses the main meaning of itself. Talking about the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SarbOx) and the growing frustration of large corporations having to spend a lot of time and money meeting its mandate to more closely monitor corporate financial reporting, he defends it by listing how badly distorted ‘normal’ capitalist business was by the frauds perpetrated by Enron, Worldcom, et al:

“They made foolish acquistions and high-profile investments that destroyed value instead of creating it–studies suggest that, in the telecommunications sector alone, bad investments totalled tens of billions of dollars. And they hired lots of people whom, in the end, they probably didn’t need.

“A recent paper by Simi Kedia, of Rutgers, and Thomas Philippon, of NYU, for instance, looked at all the companies known to have been managing earnings between 1997 and 2000. In those years, the companies boosted hiring by a full twenty-five percent, while other companies increased hiring by less than seven percent. As soon as the companies were forced to come clean, the employees were sacked… re-stating companies fired between 250,000 and 600,000 employees between 2000 and 2002.

“All this playacting affected not just the fraudulent companies but also their competitors, with serious consequences for the American economy at large… An accounting professor at Columbia suggests [that] WorldCom’s lies–about its profits, about the amount of internet traffic its network was carrying, and about the total demand for telecom capacity–made competitors like AT&T and Spring look inefficient. Trying to keep pace with WorldCom led these companies to overinvestment in new technology and to price wars, followed by cost-cutting campaigns, layoffs, and in AT&T’s case, the decision to break up the company. WorldCom’s deception… led to the misallocation of billions of dollars in capital across an entire industry, and rearranged the lives of tens of thousands of workers…”

The next time someone glibly insists that markets are the most rational way to allocate resources, and that social planning would create some kind of disaster of inefficiency and wasted resources, pull this anecdote out of your hat and shove it down their throat!

Engineering Public Safety

Personal drama aside. Thanks to everyone for the incredible outpouring of warmth and support. I really feel it. Thank you.

I was buying a coffee at the SOMA cafe today and glanced at the SF Chronicle, usually such a worthless rag that I can barely read anything but the headlines. But to my utter amazement a left column article detailed how engineers in the Dept. of Building Inspection have halted the mammoth 550-ft. tall Rincon Towers project that just broke ground a few months ago. Why? Because the public engineers are not convinced that the design can survive an earthquake! I’m flabbergasted.

UCSF has been building biohazard facilities on landfill in Mission Bay and there’s been nary a peep about public safety. It seems like everyone believes that modern engineering can defeat the movement of the earth, no matter how bad. But then this new tower (larger than the monster proposed by US Steel back in the early ’70s that was defeated by intense public opposition), which seemed to be on the fast track thanks to the funds extracted from the developer for community and housing funds, provokes the city’s inspectors to call a halt for safety.

Tellingly, the developers’ engineering firm offers its interpretation of what the extent of the code’s expectations are:

“It is our interpretation that the intent of the code is to provide design procedures that will result in structures that may be significantly damaged or perhaps unrepairable, but remain standing following a major earthquake,” read one reply from Magnusson Klemencic among hundreds of pages of technical documents reviewed by The Chronicle.

Hearty thanks to Chief Engineer Hanson Tom who threw the flag on this. After ruminating on public health and general preparedness for disasters of various natural and unnatural types, I’d really given up on anyone working for the City taking their job seriously enough to contest the Money that runs this town. Still a long way to go, but here’s to hoping for more bureaucrats with balls!